Are Fear and Greed Really an Investment Strategy?

Warren Buffet is a well-known and well-respected long-term value investor. He invests in companies when he sees the cost is low relative to the value of the company and then sells later after the stock value has increased. He is not a day trader and typically invests with a long-term horizon. When Buffet speaks, many who want to make money investing will listen closely.

We should take caution whenever we put someone on a pedestal as a role model or guide for our lives. We should test what they say against what God teaches in the Bible to ensure we are not following a “false prophet” who appears to lead to prosperity but in reality leads to destruction or separation from God.

Whatever I may think of Mr. Buffet’s political opinions, he certainly has some real credibility with regard to investing.  One of his well-known quotes can actually be quite helpful in establishing a certain mindset for us to consider when we are investing.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffet

I could certainly do a study on the words “fearful” and “greedy” and make a case that we should not literally let fear and greed make our investing decisions, but that would truly be missing Mr. Buffet’s point. What he is suggesting is that the average investor, and many professionals as well, have a tendency to allow emotions to guide their investing and not for the better.

When the market is priced very high, people get greedy and forget about the danger of a market pullback. The same investors who were too fearful of buying when stocks were low now jump in when stocks are high.  Then when difficulties around the world cause the same stocks to tumble in value, people become fearful and sell while stock values are low. This represents “buying high” and “selling low”, which is not a robust strategy.

Of course, Buffet is not suggesting we blindly buy when people are fearful, as we could easily buy stocks that are still going lower. He is simply suggesting that we take note of when people are widely fearful about stocks plunging down and look for bargains that we are confident will increase in value over a several-year time frame as market forces settle out. On the flip side when the market seems “unstoppable” and we are tempted to keep putting more money in… consider selling some of what you bought and taking profits. Then you are once again ready with cash in the account to buy the next time people panic and the stock values fall.

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